Multiple Regression Influential points ... detected by the influential statistics listed above need to be examined individually, and ... Variance-infl...

0 downloads 15 Views 116KB Size

No documents

Loading...

The leverage statistic, hii, also called the hat-value, is available to identify cases which influence the regression model more than others. The hii values are computed as the diagonal entries of the matrix X(XTX)-1XT. The leverage statistic varies from 0 (no influence on the model) to 1 (completely determines the model). A rule of thumb is that cases with leverage under .2 are not a problem, but if a case has leverage over .5, the case has undue leverage and should be examined for the possibility of measurement error or the need to model such cases separately. Cook's distance, D, is another measure of the influence of a case. Cases with larger D values than the rest of the data are those which have unusual leverage. A cut-off for detecting influential cases is set for values of D greater than 1.

where ri is the studentized residual for i-th observation, hii is the leverage statistic, p is the number of parameters beta. The value of Di is a function on how well the model fits the data and how far the point is from the rest of the data. DFBETAS distance is another measure for influential points. It measures the influence of the i-th observation on the parameters estimates. This measure is obtained by deleting the i-th observation and by refitting the model without this observation. If the parameter estimates vary significantly, then the i-th obs can be considered influential.

where Cjj is the diagonal element of matrix (XTX)-1, S2(i) is the mean square error of the model fitted without the i-th observation. A cutoff value for detecting influential cases with DFBETAS is | DFBETASij|>2/sqrt(n), for sample size n. DFFITS distance measures the changes in the predictions of y if the i-th observation is eliminated.

A cutoff value for detecting influential cases with DFFITS is | DFFITSi|>2*sqrt(p/n), where n is the sample size and p is the number of parameters. Studentized residuals are also used to detect outliers with high leverage. The studentized residual is also called the deleted studentized residual because its calculation involves leaving out one case in turn for each of the cases. Other terms include externally studentized residual or, misleadingly, standardized residual. In a plot of studentized residuals, one may draw lines at plus and minus two standard units to highlight cases outside the range where 95% of the cases normally lie. Remark on cutoff points All cutoff points are only guidelines. Influential points detected by the influential statistics listed above need to be examined individually, and only after a full analysis of the problem we can draw conclusions about outliers and influential points.

Multicollinearity Multicollinearity is the intercorrelation of independent variables. While simple correlations tell something about multicollinearity, the preferred method of assessing multicollinearity is to regress each independent on all the other independent variables in the equation. Inspection of the correlation matrix reveals only bivariate multicollinearity, for bivariate correlations > .90. To assess multivariate multicollinearity, one uses tolerance or VIF, which build in the regressing of each independent on all the others. Even when multicollinearity is present, note that estimates for other variables in the equation (variables which are not collinear with others) are not affected. The following multi-collinearity statistics are computed using the option “vif” or “tol” in the model statement. PROC REG; MODEL yvar = xvar_1 xvar_2 …xvar_k / vif tol; RUN;

Note that a corollary is that very high standard errors of beta coefficients is an indicator of multi-collinearity in the data Tolerance is (1 - Rj2 ) for the regression of Xj on all the other X-variables, ignoring the y-variable. There will be as many tolerance coefficients as there are X-variables. The higher the collinearity of the X-variables, the more the tolerance

will approach zero. As a rule of thumb, if tolerance is less than .20, a problem with multicollinearity is indicated. Variance-inflation factor, VIF VIF is the variance inflation factor, which is simply the reciprocal of tolerance. So VIF=1/(1-Rj2). Therefore, when VIF is high there is high multicollinearity and instability of the beta coefficients. The table below shows the inflationary impact on the standard error of the regression coefficient (beta) of the jth independent variable for various levels of multiple correlation (Rj), tolerance, and VIF (adapted from Fox, 1991: 12). Note that in the "Impact on SE" column, 1.0 corresponds to no impact, 2.0 to doubling the standard error, etc.: Rj Tolerance VIF Impact on SEb 0

1

1

1.0

.4 .84

1.19 1.09

.6 .64

1.56 1.25

.75 .44

2.25 1.5

.8 .36

2.78 1.67

.87 .25

4.0 2.0

.9 .19

5.26 2.29

Standard error is doubled when VIF is 4.0 and tolerance is .25, corresponding to Rj = .87. Therefore VIF >= 4 (or 5) is an arbitrary but common cut-off criterion for deciding when a given independent variable displays "too much" multicollinearity: values above 4 or 5 suggest a multicollinearity problem.